You shouldn’t count on strong growth of the Russian market today


The Russian stock market closed last week without any fundamental changes, remaining in the middle of an upward corridor. Attempts to break through its lower border were unsuccessful and now it would be nice to go up, maybe even slightly above 3700 points.

Today everything is going in favor of continuing such a campaign started on Friday. American futures added a quarter of a percent in the morning, precious metals are in positive territory, oil is growing a little less than a percent. Therefore, the ruble market indicator has a good chance of continuing sluggish growth. One should not count on any strong movement or the formation of a new wave of growth, there is no reason for this.

Thus, medium-term investors should maintain their positions in portfolios, because the trend on the Russian market is still upward. Moreover, we recommend adding and increasing the share of shares of gold mining companies to these portfolios – it seems that gold has formed an upward trend and may well go above $ 2,000 per troy ounce.

In the coming days, Norilsk Nickel is speculatively interesting, on Friday the paper will be traded with dividends for the last day. It is possible that they will try to pull it up by 5 percent. Today, prices for the company’s main products are growing.

The securities of oil companies are also speculatively interesting. Not only have they traded very weakly in recent weeks, but also unjustifiably sagged in the middle of last week on the fall of oil to $ 65 per barrel. Today they may well continue the rebound started on Friday.

Of course, our favorites are Sberbank, which will be dragged up not only by the external positive, but also by the continued inflow of Western investors’ funds into the Russian market. Last week, the bank’s shares did not even dare to seriously test the support zone of 290-293 rubles, turning away from it. This is a good signal to move closer to historical highs. Moreover, Sber should not break the established tradition to quickly close the dividend gap.

We are closely watching the “second tier”: at any moment there may be stories with a rise in any security by more than 10%, as we saw last week with Mechel. As for Mechel itself, its prospects are good, if only in the first quarter the paper earned a 10% dividend yield. Only now it is locally overbought; in order to include it in medium-term portfolios, it is better to wait for a correction.

Everything is calm in the domestic foreign exchange market. The volatility of trading in the ruble has fallen sharply in recent days. So far, the ruble is receiving support from the tax period, but it is about to end. There are no forces and drivers to break through the strong support for the dollar-ruble pair. Most likely, we will again see the pair leave just above the 74 mark.

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