With the growth of the stock market today, problems may arise


The domestic stock market looked very strong yesterday, having dropped by 1.2% in the main session. Moreover, about half of this amount was given by the dividend gap of Sberbank.

Meanwhile, the situation looks bleak on external sites. Once again, inflationary fears and expectations of a faster-than-expected curtailment of US stimulus programs by the Federal Reserve came to the market. The American broad market indices closed the day with roughly a percentage decline. True, the NASDAQ closed near zero, but it’s too early to talk about the end of the high-tech sales phase.

Before our opening, American futures lost another 0.5%, precious metals are in the red. Oil hangs around zero. Therefore, the opening awaits us in the area of ​​yesterday’s close, maybe with a slight decline.

Yesterday, Sberbank pleased us, having dropped by about three quarters of the dividend yield. This was largely due to the bank’s traditionally strong financial statements for April. We expect Sberbank to continue to quickly close the dividend gap as the external background improves.

Today is the last day the Moscow Exchange is trading with dividends. Yesterday, it was actively bought at a dividend yield of about 5%, providing the security with an update of historical highs. The speed of closing the dividend gap will largely depend on the external background, but now the stock exchange’s shares are locally overbought and, in our opinion, are traded at a “fair” value. Therefore, we do not expect a quick return of the share price to the “pre-dividend” level, most likely, it will take about a month.

Among the promising ideas, it is worth noting the shares of raw materials producers. On drawdowns it is worth buying Norilsk Nickel and VSMPO Avisma. With great pressure, it is possible to include ferrous metallurgists in this list, but it is worthwhile to reserve free funds for averaging for them in case the claims of the antimonopoly department against them turn out to be high.

Speculatively, you can try to take Yandex, which went into the support zone at the high-tech sales in the United States.

The oil industry looks dull, despite the comfortable oil prices and the growth in production as part of the deal with OPEC +. Here it is better to wait for the formation of a growth wave, and it will certainly be, and then join the movement.

In the area of ​​74, the dollar-ruble pair is looking for an equilibrium zone. So far, we do not expect a strong movement in the Russian currency. Removal of political and sanctions risks has already been won back. The further strengthening of the ruble will be hindered by the weakness of the domestic economy and its strong dependence on imported components, which have risen in price due to rising prices for raw materials.

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The benchmark for the Moscow Exchange index: 3650-3700 points.