The Russian stock market yesterday looked much weaker than the rest of the trading floors, losing almost 0.9% on the Mosbirzh index and completing the main trading at 3500 points. The Russian actions were pressured by fears of an aggravation of the conflict with Ukraine, which threatens to grow from a diplomatic one into an already worked out scheme of “peace enforcement”.
Heavyweight Sberbank, Rosneft, Norilsk Nickel and Lukoil experienced the largest drop. Most likely, this is a consequence of the outflow of capital from non-residents that has begun. This assumption is confirmed by the fall of OFZ, although the dollar is slowly weakening in the world currency market, and the prices of US government securities are showing growth.
In the first half of the day, the ruble held up well, but in the afternoon, when American investors became more active, it collapsed by a percentage. This is again a clear signal of the exit of non-residents.
Most likely, the decline will continue today, especially since the external background cannot be called positive: American futures and oil are traded in the area of yesterday’s close, but industrial and precious metals have gone negative.
Moreover, America is near the upper border of the ascending channel, and is unlikely to attempt to break it, given the presence of short-term technical overbought.
But the weak ruble will support exporters’ securities, primarily ferrous metallurgy, which looked better than the market yesterday. This is understandable: the hand does not rise to sell shares with a dividend yield of about 20%.
As long as the Moscow Exchange Index is above 3400 points, medium-term investors can keep longs. But what the speculators should do today is a difficult question. It is not yet clear how soon the political factor will stop acting on the market. Today there can be either a continuation of sales or an attempt to rebound.
The ruble is very weak. Now the support for the dollar-ruble pair is the area of 76, and the resistance – 78. It is possible that with the whipping up of political hysteria, we will very soon test the resistance. Its breakdown will lead to the subsequent storming of the psychologically important mark of 80, the breakdown of which will open the way for the ruble to grow again.
So far, do not expect any support for the Russian currency from the regulator. By increasing the purchase of foreign currency in the Stabilization Fund, the monetary authorities showed that they do not intend to limit the fall of the ruble. Apparently, the choice between keeping inflation and filling the budget was made in favor of the latter.
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