Negotiations on a nuclear deal with Iran could lead to the fact that Iranian oil will return to the market in July (aggressive scenario) or October (baseline scenario). Iran will be able to supply oil in the amount of 500,000 to 2 million barrels per day.
Will the market accept the increase in oil volumes or will the oil price start falling in price again? Dmitry Aleksandrov, Head of Analytical Research Department, Investment Company UNIVER Capital, answered the question of Fortrader magazine.
– The Iranian factor can indeed return to the market about 1.5 million barrels per day within two to three quarters, which will be essential for the balance of supply / demand in the event of a slower recovery in consumption.
However, under a favorable scenario for the global economy, these volumes will not create a significant distortion, although they will require a slower increase in quotas from OPEC +. However, there may be slight downward pressure on the Urals price differential versus Brent.