The Biden administration’s plans to increase the capital gains tax and the ban on cryptocurrencies in Turkey collapsed digital assets – the capitalization of the entire cryptocurrency market fell by more than $ 200 billion.For the first time since the beginning of March, the bitcoin rate fell below $ 50,000.
How to interpret the decline in the bitcoin rate: as a natural pullback that should be used to buy, or the end of an uptrend? Leonid Delitsyn, an analyst at FINAM Group, answered the question of Fortrader magazine.
– Recently, Jim Kramer, the popular host of the TV show Mad Money, reported that he bought bitcoin for $ 12K, sold it for $ 64K and paid the mortgage. I wouldn’t be surprised if, after such a good deal, CNBC renews his contract for the show for more years. Kramer could, on the contrary, sell the house, buy cryptocurrency for $ 64K and one day sell for $ 12K. And take an honorable place among the audience. Surely someone has already done something like this.
Let’s look at this story formally. In December 2017, the price of bitcoin increased to $ 19.8 thousand. If Kramer acquired the cryptocurrency after its collapse, after this peak value, then he did it after the price fell by 37% from the peak value. Given that the last peak was $ 60K, the next forward-thinking Kramer will buy Bitcoin for $ 38K, and one day later he will tell if he wins.
It makes sense to buy something when the price goes down if there is confidence that this decline is short-term, and fundamentally the asset has great prospects. I’m not sure that the ban on cryptocurrency in Turkey is a signal of the colossal prospects for bitcoin. The reason for the demand for cryptocurrencies is that there is money, but investors have no ideas. Cryptocurrencies aren’t the only ones that benefit from having money. In the stock market, these are both new issuers that have no profit, and new companies in the pharmaceutical sector that have no revenue, and blank checks (SPACs) – new public companies that have no business. In this they are similar to cryptocurrencies – this is such a sterile future, not burdened by the present. Now it is unlikely that it will be possible to predict the outcome reasonably, you can only either believe or not believe.