We forecast the growth of the Moscow Exchange index in the range of 3600-3650 points


Market the day before

The trading dynamics were multidirectional. The Moscow Exchange Index was unable to update the maximum. Shares of Kazan Orgsynthesis (KZOSP 33.94, + 39.90%) became the growth leaders amid news of the deal with SIBUR. Among the outsiders due to the closing of the register, TMK shares were found to be dividend (TRMK 80.94, -11.75%). The USD / RUB pair dropped to the range of 74.00–75.00.

Market and company news

The Bank of Russia raised its key rate to 5% per annum. Thus, the regulator switched to neutral monetary policy: it intends to maintain the rate at the level of 5-6% with inflation of about 4%. Further revision is also possible within the specified corridor, but this will depend on the rate of price growth. The situation on the money market is still calm, rates will rise after the key one by 0.25–0.5 percentage points. On the horizon of six months, in our opinion, this decision of the regulator will not put pressure on the GDP growth rate, but at the same time it may not restrain, but rather begin to stimulate demand, which will prevent inflation from decreasing. As a result, a new rate hike is not excluded by one or two steps, if the rate of price growth does not decrease over the horizon of three months.

The tape (LNTA 241.50, + 1.39%) will report for the 1st quarter. Revenue forecast: RUB 107 billion EBITDA may amount to 11 billion rubles. Profit is expected to be around RUB 3 billion. Growth in turnover is supported by food inflation and increased online sales, but constrained by competition from discounters. We do not exclude a further decline in shares of companies in the consumer sector after the increase in the key rate.

Trading Ideas

Sberbank, JSC (SBER 293.00, + 0.28%), spec. purchase, purpose: 305 rubles. Quotes can break through the maximum and conduct a successful assault on the psychologically significant mark of 300 rubles.

Expectations

We expect multidirectional dynamics. The external background is positive. It is possible that the maximum on the Moscow Exchange index will be updated and it will rise in the range of 3600–3650 points. The vector of quotes will depend on the dynamics on external markets. Forecast for the USD / RUB pair: a corridor of 74.10-75.10.

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