Yesterday the Russian stock market managed to add a little over 0.4%. But this growth can be called modest, given the rise in oil above $ 77 per barrel. Perhaps this was a consequence of the low activity of non-residents, since the US stock markets did not work yesterday.
We expect that today purchases of Russian shares will continue, including those of Lukoil and Rosneft, which yesterday did not react at all to the rise in prices for “black gold” and looked worse than the market.
The external background is weakly positive this morning: American futures are traded without any significant changes, but oil and metals continue to rise in price.
As for oil, we are expecting it at $ 80 per barrel. Yesterday OPEC + did not issue a final verdict on the level of production since August due to the position of the UAE, which requires large quotas. So far, this supports oil quotes, but as it approaches the $ 80 mark, the market may “change its mind.” Indeed, a discord in OPEC + could theoretically lead to a split in the cartel, but while such a scenario is unlikely, most likely a compromise with the UAE will be found in the coming days. However, it cannot be ruled out that after this OPEC + will decide to increase production not by 0.4 million barrels, but in large volumes.
When the Moscow Exchange Index approaches the level of 4000, speculative longs should be fixed. This is not only a psychologically important level, but also a mark just above the ascending channel. It is unlikely that the index will be able to break the channel and gain a foothold higher.
Among medium-term ideas, we still have a positive view of Gazprom. Many people call the target of growth the mark of 300 rubles, but we believe that it will not become a serious obstacle to the rise even higher. In the middle of the month, Gazprom will have a dividend cut-off. It is possible that the paper will be driven strongly upwards under it. But there are no risks of crossing the cut-off – we are waiting for the quick closure of the dividend gap.
Sberbank looked weak yesterday, falling 0.13%, while VTB soared 3.6% without new reasons, and TCS – 3.9%. Sberbank’s lag behind other securities in the financial sector looks unfair, we expect it to catch up with its competitors that have gone ahead.
The ruble yesterday gave up all Friday’s gains, made against the backdrop of a slight weakening of the dollar on the world market. As before, the Russian currency ignores the rising oil prices, since the “extra” oil revenues are withdrawn to the National Welfare Fund. This month, the Ministry of Finance will increase the purchase of foreign currency by about 30%.
There are no growth drivers for the ruble, the dollar-ruble pair will slowly slide towards the resistance of 74.6. But before the Duma elections, the ruble exchange rate will be relatively stable. Devaluation processes will intensify after the elections.
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