Yesterday’s morning drawdown of Russian stocks was quickly redeemed, and the Moscow Exchange Index went up, despite the nondescript external background. By the end of the day, the ruble market indicator added 0.6%.
The detention, and then the arrest of Alexei Navalny, was simply ignored by stock traders.
The dynamics of the Russian market better than their Western counterparts can only be explained by the continuing inflow of investor funds into the market. Moreover, a significant part of the new money is provided by domestic investors.
Today, the external background calls for continued shopping. After yesterday’s weekend in the United States, US futures added about 0.5-0.6%. Oil has risen in price by half a percent, trying to keep the mark of $ 55 per barrel. Most industrial and precious metals are in the black.
So if the external background does not start to deteriorate, then the Moscow Exchange Index has every chance to try to gain a foothold above the 3500 point mark. Technical resistance passes about 20-30 points above this mark, and only after breaking through it will it be possible to make forecasts regarding the emergence of a new full-fledged growth wave.
However, we would not recommend making aggressive purchases: in the second half of January, Russian shares are often corrected.
It is also difficult to give any specific recommendations on securities today. Most likely, like yesterday, the leaders of growth and decline will be securities of the “second tier”. In such a situation, it might be worth taking part in the growth of the market by buying a futures on the Moscow Exchange Index.
Unlike stock traders, currency speculators reacted by selling the ruble to the detention and then the arrest of Alexei Navalny. At the moment, the ruble fell against the dollar by more than 0.8%.
This can be seen more as an emotional reaction. So far, there is no talk of sanctions against Russia.
Therefore, today we should expect a slight strengthening of the ruble, which will receive support from the tax period. However, the mark of 73 rubles per dollar remains a reinforced concrete barrier to further strengthening of the Russian currency.
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