To neutralize bears, buyers need to raise EURUSD above 1.18 by the close of the day


On Monday, March 29, at the end of the day, the euro fell against the dollar by 0.25%, to 1.1764. The price remained within Friday’s range of 1.1762-1.1805. Buyers have not been able to take advantage of the rise in the EUR / GBP cross pair. The single currency was already under pressure due to lockdowns, and sales increased against the backdrop of a move into the dollar (a safe-haven asset) due to concerns about the possible consequences of a default by hedge fund Archegos Capital on margin requirements.

Banks Credit Suisse, Nomura, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley dumped large stakes. The sales volume amounted to more than $ 20 billion. The packages were sold bypassing the exchange. US stock indices ignored this situation, although the banking sector sank 0.89%. Morgan Stanley shares fell 2.63% to $ 77.88. But the debt market reacted. The yield on 10-year bonds rose to 1.762% per annum. New highs – new worries about inflation in the US.

Scheduled statistics (GMT + 3)

  • At 12:00, the eurozone will report on the change in the M3 aggregate of money supply and lending to the private sector for March.
  • At 15:00 Germany will present the consumer price index for March.
  • At 16:00 the US is to publish the S & P / Case-Shiller Price Index for January, and at 17:00 the consumer confidence indicator for March.

Current situation

At the time of writing, the euro is worth 1.1747. Support for 1.1760 lasted 4.5 days. Amid sales of the euro in crosses, the euro / dollar pair fell to 1.1741. It should be noted that the “New Zealander” and “Australian” traded in positive territory by 0.13%. They renewed their highs at the beginning of the Asian session and are now declining with other currencies.

The fall in them is moderate, which indicates that at the moment there is no mass flight from risky assets in the foreign exchange market. The negative euro adds to the daily increase in the number of coronavirus infections in the EU. Angela Merkel is nervous about not being able to turn the tide. France is considering tightening restrictions.

If the sale of US bonds intensifies, the dollar index will rise faster. The nearest support for the euro is at 1.1.1730, the next one is at 1.1635. In order for the “bearish” sentiments for the euro to be leveled out, buyers need to raise the price above 1.18 by the close of the day.

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