There is no confidence in the further growth of the stock market


Yesterday, the Russian stock market continued its strong rise. Moreover, the growth went on even during the day, when American futures showed indistinct dynamics, and oil began to decline. This is a good sign of a growth mindset. At the moment, the Moscow Exchange Index only a few points did not reach the resistance of 3600 points.

The dynamics of the American market is also encouraging: attempts to reduce it failed, and with the opening of stock exchanges, investors switched to buying all assets, including once again updating the records for the S & P500 Index. Thus, real investors, and not speculators, are still in the mood for positive.

Today, before our opening, the external background is again neutral. American futures are trading near zero, but at the same time, oil continues to show an intention to correct, which is losing about 0.7%. Support for oil is $ 67 per barrel. When it is broken through, sales will intensify, but so far there is no reason for such a scenario. Most likely, today the quotes will remain in the range of $ 67-70 per barrel.

Therefore, we will open around the evening closing. Perhaps, seeing the situation with oil, profit-taking in oil securities will begin, many of which look locally overbought.

Here it is worth paying attention to Gazprom Neft, which has recently lagged behind the market. If Rosneft has repeatedly rewritten historical highs in recent weeks, and Lukoil has only a few percent left to rise to them, then Gazprom Neft has to go a long way of 25% before breaking the records. It is possible that the paper will reduce the gap with colleagues.

We are still waiting for the continuation of the rebound in gold, which held the support of $ 1,680 per troy ounce and began a not very confident movement towards the first growth target of $ 1,770. The beneficiaries of the growth of the precious metal will be the shares of gold mining companies. They can be taken for both speculative and medium-term purposes.

In general, we are not sure that the Moscow Exchange Index will again demonstrate strong results today. Many securities look overbought, and the desire to take profit is growing.

In addition, the markets will be pressed by the expectation of tomorrow’s announcement of the results of the Fed meeting and, more importantly, the subsequent speech of its head Jerome Powell. It is unlikely that the regulator will say something new, but we have repeatedly seen recently how the market reacted sharply to Powell’s harmless words.

The dollar-ruble pair for the first time since December 18 of last year managed to go under the strongest support 73. It is possible that for some time the pair will be able to gain a foothold below this level, especially since now the ruble is receiving support from the tax period. But we would not advise making medium-term bets on the strengthening of the Russian currency – the issue of its devaluation is only a matter of time.

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