There is a high probability that the euro / dollar will rise to 1.1943 by Thursday


On Monday, July 5, trading in the euro closed slightly lower. The euro fell 0.04% to 1.1859. The euro / dollar pair traded between 1.1850 and 1.1880. The market was calm due to the national holiday in the United States (Independence Day).

Scheduled statistics (GMT + 3)

  • At 11:30 Britain is to publish the PMI for the construction sector for June.
  • At 12:00, Germany and the Eurozone are to release the ZEW Business Sentiment Index for July. Also, the eurozone will report on the change in retail sales in May and will present an economic forecast from the European Commission.
  • At 4:45 pm, the US is to publish the June services PMI, and at 5:00 pm, the ISM services PMI for June.

Current situation

At the auctions in Asia, the main currencies are colored green. The highest yield is shown by the New Zealander (+ 1.09%) and the Australian (+ 0.85%). They rose sharply after the RBA meeting. The New Zealander is up more than the Aussie as market expectations for a RBNZ rate hike rise and the RBA is not expected to budge until November 2023.

On Wednesday, the US Federal Reserve will publish the minutes of the Fed meeting. After a controversial report on the US labor market, the minutes are a big deal for the foreign exchange market this week.

The dollar index fell to 91.99 points. The road to the level of 91.81 is now open along it. Since the dollar index consists of 56.7% of the euro / dollar pair, it can be assumed that the euro will rise in price to 1.1943 (112 g.) By Thursday.

The euro rate rose to 1.1895. Today the resistance is the level of 1.1905. With the support of the cross, you can move the resistance by 1.1915 / 20 (90 degrees). From the news, it is worth highlighting the PMI indices in the EU and business activity in the service sector in the United States.

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