The last 4 sessions of last week, the Russian stock market was falling, as a result of which the Mosbirzhi Index ended the week just below the lower boundary of the rising channel, which began at the end of last year. We saw an attempt to break through this support earlier, but everything ended with a rebound and renewed historical highs.
However, then there was an inflow of funds from Western investors, and now non-residents are reducing their positions on Russian shares. This is due to the end of the period of oil growth, as well as the approaching Duma elections.
Therefore, there are strong concerns that the consolidation of the Moscow Exchange Index below the lower boundary of the channel will provoke an increase in sales, and a decrease in the ruble indicator by 10-15 percent.
The external background is unfavorable today: American futures are falling by 0.4%, oil is losing interest. Therefore, the opening awaits us with a decline.
OPEC + countries reached an agreement on production levels over the weekend. From August, the monthly increase in production will be 400 thousand barrels per day until the previous decrease in volumes of 5.8 million barrels per day is compensated. For the oil market, this decision is moderately positive, since if the world economy continues to grow, the additional 400 thousand barrels per day will be easily digested by the market, but at the same time the risks of the collapse of the cartel are a thing of the past.
However, oil today is falling on a general decline in investment optimism. Quotes went under the support of $ 73 per barrel, and may well test the next level of $ 70.
Thus, mid-term investors need to be prepared to cut positions on stocks in order to buy them back at a lower price in the future.
Speculatively, you can try to make money on shorts for Rosneft, Lukoil and Sberbank. In the event of a rebound, NLMK and MMK look the most promising, which this week will publish their second quarter reports, which promise to be very strong. Most likely, these securities will be better in the falling market.
America should be carefully watched. There, strong support is located at 4280 points on the S & P500 Index. Its breakdown will strengthen the decline, to which the Russian stock market will react with multiple sales.
The ruble against the dollar in recent days has been trading in a narrow sideways range of 74-74.6. Now the Russian currency will receive support from the tax period and the expectation of an increase in the Central Bank rate. Moreover, the worse the situation is, the more likely it is that the regulator will immediately increase the indicator by 1 percentage point. However, in any case, the rate hike will have a weak and short-term positive effect on the ruble exchange rate and inflation.
Today, the pair is likely to test the resistance of 74.6. Anchoring above it will open the way for a hike to area 76.
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