There are no signals to exit the sideways of Norilsk Nickel shares yet


Trading results

At the previous trading session, shares of MMC Norilsk Nickel fell 0.81%, closing at 24,612 rubles. The paper looked worse than the market, which added 0.43%.

Short-term picture

At the trading session on Thursday, Norilsk Nickel shares dropped to the lower boundary of the formed sideways trend of 24,500-25,000 rubles. The securities were under pressure, as was the metals sector as a whole. Even the weakening of the ruble could not change the situation.

The short-term technical picture remains neutral. The sideways trade is relevant, there are no reliable signals to exit the consolidation. Before the breakdown of one of the consolidation boundaries, it is difficult to count on an increase in volatility in securities. In case of going down, the key resistance zone is 23,800-24,000 rubles. If this mark is passed, the medium-term expectations in the paper will worsen. In a bullish scenario, it is important to return above the 200-period moving average, this will mean a break in the downtrend.

On the mid-term horizon, the picture remains tense, as the downtrend is still in force. There are still no unambiguous signals for a reversal by indicators on the daily interval. Reinvestment of part of the funds received by shareholders as part of the buyback may become a positive driver for quotes in the coming week.

  • Resistances: 25000/25600/25900
  • Supports: 24500/24000/23800

External background

The external background is neutral this morning. American indices rose after the close of our main session on Thursday. Asian markets are trading in different directions today and do not show uniform dynamics. Futures on the S&P 500 index are growing by 0.1%, Brent oil shows near-zero dynamics and is in the region of $ 75.8. All this allows us to assume that if the external background is preserved, the opening will take place near the close of the previous day.

Long-term picture

Since 2009, Norilsk Nickel shares have been in a big up-trend. Growth impulses alternate with periods of sideways consolidation, drawdowns are quickly redeemed, indicating the strength of the trend.

Trend indicators on the weekly timeframe look up. The latest correctional wave from the highs in May was associated with a decline in prices for key metals of the company, the strengthening of the ruble, as well as the introduction of export duties. Due to the pullback, a bearish divergence was formed in the RSI. Nevertheless, the signal potential has already been worked out, and the buyout candlestick with a long tail reflects the activation of buyers at local minimums.

Reinvestment of funds received by shareholders from the buyback of shares may have a positive impact on the dynamics of quotations in the next couple of weeks. This should create additional demand for securities.

On the weekly interval, 22,000 rubles can be designated as key support. The level is unlikely to be reached within the current wave, unless new negative drivers emerge. The main zone of resistance is about 27,000-27,500 rubles. In the event of a breakdown, the targets will shift to 28,700 rubles.

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