The Russian stock market yesterday managed not only to rewrite historical highs, but also to gain a foothold above the 3700 point mark. There were no new reasons for growth on the market: a positive external background and high world prices for raw materials encouraged purchases.
But now the ruble market indicator is very close to technical resistance, which is the upper border of the ascending channel. There are no reasons for breaking it. Moreover, this morning the external background began to deteriorate: American futures are trading in a slight minus, oil is down 0.5%. Thus, we expect a slight decline in the Moscow Exchange Index today, but the medium-term upward trend remains in effect.
Sberbank continues to rebound from the support of 294 rubles, and everything seems to be fine with it. But there are strong concerns about the fact that the dividends received on the investors’ accounts under the Sberbank do not lead to an increase in the bank’s shares. It seems that this year the factor of reinvestment of payments received over the past year will not support the market.
Yesterday, the leaders of the decline were shares of ferrous metallurgy. Their correction still looks justified given the strong mid-term technical overbought. It is not excluded that the decline in stock prices of companies in the sector will continue in the coming days. But in medium-term portfolios of securities, you can continue to hold securities, since their dividend yield will be a record, in the region of 20%.
Oil went down today. No new “horror stories” have appeared on the market. Just a slight correction in America, as expected, reduced interest in buying other risky assets. Considering that Rosneft has been trading much weaker than the market in recent weeks, speculative investors today can try to play short with it.
The dollar-ruble pair started consolidating at 40-50 kopecks above the strong support 73. There are no reasons for the continued growth of the ruble exchange rate. This week, the Russian currency will lose such support as the tax period, while the demand for the currency will increase as a result of the conversion of dividends received from rubles into money.
In such conditions, the opening of speculative longs on the pair looks appropriate.
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