The Russian stock market yesterday managed to rise 0.4% on the Moscow Exchange Index, which looks weak, given the confident buying of American shares. The ruble indicator did not begin to break through the 3500-point mark, which would have formed the preconditions for continued growth.
Shares of Sberbank and VTB looked better than the market. Sberu’s resistance is the 292 ruble mark, where we recommend closing the longs at least partially. Most likely, the market will still give an opportunity to buy securities a little cheaper. We excluded VTB from the analysis altogether, since we do not recommend buying it in the medium and long term, and active speculators themselves know what to do with it.
Today, American futures are down by a quarter of a percent, oil has also dropped by a percentage, which promises a negative opening of the Russian market. But while there are no reasons for large-scale sales, Russian stocks as a whole look pretty strong.
Unfortunately, this cannot be said about the ruble. Yesterday, the dollar-ruble pair closed the day above the border of the 73-74.7 side channel, in which it has been trading since December last year. Today, at morning trading, the decline continues and at the time of this writing, the dollar is already 75.2 rubles. The technical resistance for the pair is the area of 76, where a stop or at least a slowdown in the rate of decline of the Russian currency should follow.
There are several reasons for the sharp weakening of the ruble. First of all, these are the heightened risks of imposing tough sanctions. Russian President’s press secretary Dmitry Peskov said that the Kremlin is considering the possibility of disconnecting Russia from the SWIFT system. If earlier this threat was considered as hypothetical, now the probability of such a measure is growing.
The Turkish lira collapsed yesterday on the news of the resignation of the head of the Central Bank of Turkey. At the moment, the fall of the lira against the dollar exceeded 15%. Naturally, this negatively affected the ruble exchange rate.
Finally, after the unsuccessful testing of the 73 mark, the dollar-ruble pair was supposed to go to check the strength of the upper boundary of the channel by technique, which was done. The “ceiling” did not resist.
However, the weak ruble will support the shares of exporters, among which the most interesting are ferrous metallurgy. We continue to look with moderate optimism at Norilsk Nickel, which rebounds from the support of 22 thousand for the second time. Gold does not lend itself to sales, which, given the fall of the ruble, will support the shares of gold miners.
I really want to short-circuit the oil industry, especially the state-owned Rosneft, which in the first place may be subject to subsequent sanctions strikes. But this should be done with great caution, since both Lukoil and Rosneft can start a buyback of shares at any time, and Rosneft is fundamentally very undervalued.
In terms of oil, by the way, one should not exclude another sharp, unreasonable drop, as we saw last Thursday. Including the hedging of future supplies can be strengthened by real producers.
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