There are all prerequisites for a rally in the stock market today


Santa Claus wants to visit the financial markets. We can say that as such a Christmas rally, that is, a powerful growth in financial markets on the eve of Catholic Christmas, this year did not happen. But it’s a sin to complain: December has become one of the best months for stock markets in recent years.

Now there is hope that we will see the rally of Santa Claus – the growth of stock market indices after the release of investors from the Christmas holidays until the first days of the new year. At least today, there are prerequisites for this: American futures are growing by more than half a percent, the dollar rate against the euro is decreasing by 0.3%, industrial and precious metals are in strong plus.

Including, gold came close to the bottom up to the mark of 1900 dollars per troy ounce, which promises a good growth for the securities of Russian gold miners. It is possible that gold headed for the 2000 mark. But the rise is unlikely to be as rapid as we saw in the summer and autumn of the outgoing year.

The driver of good sentiment today is the decision of US President Donald Trump to sign a law on the allocation of $ 900 million to support the population and the economy in a pandemic.

Only oil does not participate in the general euphoria, trading slightly above $ 51 per barrel. But in the context of severe coronavirus restrictions in Europe, the cancellation of a number of air routes, and the current oil price can be considered very high.

Today, first of all, Norilsk Nickel promises to be better than the market – all of its products have grown strongly on the world market. We are positively looking at Sberbank and Mosbirzh shares.

The papers of the steelmakers are of little concern. There is information that the government may impose export duties on steel. This is quite logical in an environment where companies receive excess profits from the rise in world prices and raise prices on the domestic market. There is clearly an analogy with the grain market.

This will not greatly worsen the indicators of the industry’s issuers, but at any moment a technical factor may play – all steelmakers are highly overbought technically, the market is now very “thin”, liquidity is falling. Therefore, the correction may well take place and be significant. We recommend buying additional securities on drawdowns – the world prices for steel do not think to stop growth yet.

It is not excluded that the ruble will try to strengthen against the positive external background. However, the dollar-ruble pair has practically no chances to go down the 73rd mark. When approaching it, it is advisable to buy the dollar against the ruble. The strong resistance for the pair is the area 76.

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