the year for investors started off well


Market the day before

Positive dynamics prevailed. The top performers were TCS (TCSG 2 897.0, + 17.32%). The positive dynamics was driven by news of a change in the ownership structure of the company’s shares. The outsiders were shares of Polymetal (POLY 1,778.9, -3.37%). The USD / RUB pair was trading near the 74 mark.

Market and company news

The year started off well for investors. The Moscow Exchange Index added 5% over the week. Trading turnover in the first days was 10-20% lower than at the end of the year, but on Friday it recovered to the monthly average. The influence of the external background on the market dynamics prevails, since domestic companies do not supply corporate events.

The ruble is in no hurry to strengthen. Despite the rise in the oil price to its 11-month high, the USD / RUB rate is 15% higher than at the beginning of the year. The lag of the ruble, even against the background of the rapid fall of the dollar against major world currencies, is explained by accelerated inflation, slow recovery, as well as a low bond yield premium to US treasures. Foreign investors expect US Treasury yields to rise to 2% in the first quarter. Against this background, they would like to receive at least 3.5% per annum on Russian Eurobonds. Their price has already crept downward, playing out these speculative expectations. The main driver of the dollar yield may be the strengthening of the ruble amid rising oil prices and slowing inflation. We expect the USD / RUB rate to fall within the range of 70-72 by the end of January.

Trading Ideas

Mail.Ru (MAIL 2,016.0, +0.52), spec. purchase, purpose: 2 300 rubles. The dynamics of quotations of the IT giant lags behind other securities of the sector in the absence of negative fundamental factors.

Expectations

We expect mixed dynamics. According to our calculations, the dependence on external factors will remain. Most important in terms of news will be January 15, when the reports of three large American investment banks will be released. Forecast for the USD / RUB pair: range 73.00-74.00. The benchmark for the Moscow Exchange index: the range of 3450-3550 p.

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