The upside potential of the stock market today looks unconvincing


The Russian stock market did not have a very successful session yesterday. At a time when America gained a percentage point, we showed neutral dynamics. The oil sector pulled the Moscow Exchange Index down, sagging well on the decline in oil prices to $ 65 per barrel.

The reason for the sale of oil contracts lies in fears of an increase in oil production by Iran, which may occur if sanctions are lifted from the country after the signing of a nuclear deal with the United States. In total, the Islamic Republic can release over 1 million barrels of oil per day into the world.

Today, oil has stabilized around 65. A breakdown could trigger a short-term move to $ 60. Moreover, the reason for this may be another round of decline in investment optimism. However, we have a positive view of oil in the medium term, and in the near future we are expecting another hike to $ 70 per barrel.

But this does not mean at all that the shares of oil companies should be aggressively selected: they reacted weakly to the last wave of growth. But today it makes sense to speculatively take Rosneft and Lukoil: to stabilize oil and on the eve of the weekend, traders should cover up their shorts.

In general, the external background before our opening is developing slightly positive: American futures are growing within 0.2%. Therefore, we expect the opening of trading with a slight increase, which may continue in the future.

It is worth noting such a positive moment as another rebound of the Moscow Exchange Index from the lower border of the ascending channel, which is now taking place in the area just above 3600 points. The lack of desire to test the strength of an uptrend is already good!

We still advise you to hold and even carefully select the shares of Sberbank and gold miners.

The ruble against the dollar is now trading near the 73.5 mark. Ahead of the pair is strong support 73, which has no reason to break through. When approaching this level, it is advisable to speculatively buy the dollar against the ruble.

It is possible that this evening we will see an increased demand for currency due to the traditional Friday reduction of ruble positions and their hedging.

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