The technical picture in the shares of Norilsk Nickel with a return above 26 800 rubles has improved


Trading results

At the previous trading session, shares of GMK Norilsk Nickel rose 0.96%, closing at 26,986 rubles. The paper outperformed the market, which added 0.66%.

Short-term picture

Since the start of trading on Wednesday, shares of Norilsk Nickel have broken through the level of 26,800 rubles, the 200-period moving average, and also tested the mark of 27,000 rubles.

The technical picture with a return above 26 800 rubles. has improved. The lagging behind the market as a whole in the last couple of days began to gradually collapse. Such dynamics looks absolutely justified, since it is difficult to identify the fundamental reasons for the development of a correction in Norilsk Nickel shares. At the moment, the stochastic is oversold, which, together with the not very favorable external background, may not allow the bulls to break through 27,000 rubles today. The most likely scenario now is a slight pullback in quotes or a sideways consolidation. The breakdown of the 200-period moving average is unlikely to support the activity of buyers, as the indicator has recently been “cut down”.

  • Resistances: 26800/27000/27550
  • Supports: 26500/26450/26100

External background

The external background is moderately negative this morning. American indices remained at about the same levels after the close of our main session on Wednesday. Asian markets are trading in different directions today and do not show uniform dynamics. Futures on the S&P 500 index are down 0.11%, Brent oil is in the red by 0.7% and is near the level of $ 68.4. All this suggests that if the external background persists, the opening will take place near the previous day’s close.

Long-term picture

Since 2009, Norilsk Nickel shares have been in a big up-trend. Growth impulses alternate with periods of sideways consolidation, drawdowns are quickly redeemed, indicating the strength of the trend.

Trend indicators on the weekly timeframe look up. The last correctional wave at the end of February was caused by the news about the flooding of Norilsk Nickel mines. Due to the incident, the production plan for 2021 was reduced. However, the successful completion of the second phase of rebuilding work at the end of March and the confirmation of the production plan provoked a rebound. At the moment, the negative driver has already been largely incorporated into prices.

In the first half of April, Norilsk Nickel announced that work at the Oktyabrsky mine had resumed. This became a positive driver for quotes. Thus, the risks of disruption of the terms of restoration of works were greatly minimized. In addition, the company announced the launch of a $ 2 billion buyback. The buyback factor may support Norilsk Nickel shares until mid-June.

On the positive news, the upper limit of consolidation was broken since the end of February – 24,500 rubles. With its breakdown, the technical picture improved, and a month later the first target of growth by 27,000 rubles. has been achieved. After that, the consolidation, which is classic for the growing trend of Norilsk Nickel, began.

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