On Friday, large-scale sales covered the global stock markets. Losses of American indices amounted to 2%, the Moscow Exchange Index fell by the same amount. Moreover, Sberbank and Norilsk Nickel, two favorite securities of non-residents, were declining at a faster pace, which indicates their withdrawal from domestic securities.
However, there are no fundamental or news reasons for a large-scale sale in the West, there is simply profit taking. On our market, sanctions fears and the growth of protest moods inside the country began to act. These are negative factors, but the main reference point will still be the dynamics of the American market.
Today in the outside world before our discovery the picture is positive. American futures are growing by about half a percent, Asia is in positive territory, prices for precious metals soared. Including more than 5% silver and a little less than a percentage of gold.
Against this background, we are waiting for the opening of the market with growth, which will largely be provided by the closing of shorts by speculators. Shares of gold mining companies will trade much better than the market, primarily Polymetal as the main beneficiary of silver growth.
However, we have no confidence in the beginning of the formation of a new upward trend. So far, the market has seen only a rebound. The markets have been very volatile lately, the sentiment is changing quite quickly. Therefore, we recommend that all purchases be accompanied by very short stops.
The technical picture of the markets is rather negative. The S & P500 index closed trading on Friday at the support of 3700 points, its breakdown will provoke a movement to the area of 3640 points. The Mosbirge index pierced its nearest support at 3300 points; if it consolidates below, the next target of decline will be the area slightly below 3200 points.
Against the general positive background, the ruble will try to grow in the morning. But not much. It has no significant drivers of strengthening. Today, the euro-dollar pair continues to hang around the 1.21 mark with no signs of a new trend forming.
Slightly declining oil, reacting to Friday’s statistics on the growth of drilling activity in the US. However, the latter factor usually plays out by Monday afternoon. In recent days, oil has found support at $ 55 per barrel, a very narrow sideways trend has formed at $ 55-56 per barrel. It is unlikely that it will last long, and the way out of it will most likely be downward, since oil has no growth drivers.
Therefore, with a high probability, we can expect in the foreseeable future the resumption of the assault on the 76th dollar-ruble pair. Much for the ruble will depend on the OFZ market, which showed signs of stabilization last week.
Further dynamics of Russian government securities will largely depend on the behavior of non-residents. It is not yet clear how frightened they are by the continuing protest actions of the population.
- More forecasts and news on Fortrader’s channel Telegram
Market forecasts, analytics and stock news