At the end of Friday, the Moscow Exchange index lost 1.9%, ending the winter below the support of 3400 points. The daily chart clearly shows a short-term downtrend with the goal of moving to the 3280-point area.
But today we are expecting a strong rebound. In the morning, American futures are growing by 0.6-0.7%. Industrial and precious metals are in positive territory, oil is growing again.
Global investors were delighted with the approval by the House of Representatives of the US Congress of the bill on injecting $ 1.9 trillion into the US economy, and began to buy back assets that had sagged in recent days. But it is quite possible that the effect will be short-term, since last week this money was seen by many as an increase in inflationary risks.
However, today the opening awaits us with growth, which, however, has not yet canceled the downtrend.
Today you can try to bet on Sberbank. “Usual” Sberbank is in an ascending triangle, and a breakout of the 273 rubles mark may provoke technical growth in order to go to the area of historical highs. The external background helps to overcome the obstacle, but for further confident growth, the continuation of the global positive is necessary. It seems that in recent days Sberbank has been receiving increased support from the inflow of funds from non-residents, who have increased their investments in shares of the largest Russian bank amid the problems of Norilsk Nickel, the second favorite paper of foreigners.
By the way, Norilsk Nickel itself grew by 1.3% on Friday. But for the time being it should be considered as closing of shorts, although we expect a stronger rebound – after all, the paper is oversold locally. Further dynamics of MMC shares will depend on the assessment of the impact of recent accidents on production. But there is no particular doubt that the company will cope with the problems and the shares of MMC will again be one of the best on the Russian market.
A more alarming situation for gold. Quotes broke through the support of $ 1,770 per troy ounce on Friday, and now the next support will be the $ 1,680 area. Today gold will try to return above 1770, and if it succeeds, the negative scenario may be reversed.
We are expecting a rebound in the oil sector, which was worse than the market on Friday. But we do not advise you to get carried away with purchases, with a very high probability the correction in oil will resume and again drag the securities of the sector down. In the meantime, oil is growing by 1.5%, having gone above $ 65 per barrel.
The positive external background will give temporary strength to the ruble. The scenario of the assault on the 74.7 mark by the dollar-ruble pair is postponed at least in the morning of Monday. Today the Moscow Exchange began morning trading, and so far the ruble is wrestling about 40 kopecks from the dollar.
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