The first week of the new year was very successful for investors: the Moscow Exchange Index grew by 5% in 4 sessions. There were many reasons for this. First of all, this is the growth of the American stock market, where investors played out expectations of an increase in economic stimulus after the transfer of power to Joe Biden.
Supported oil and gas papers, which have a large weight in the ruble index, growing oil.
One gets the impression that serious money from domestic investors has come to the Russian stock market – this is a part of annual bonuses and premiums, as well as deposits closed at the end of the year.
However, today’s trading will start with a decline due to the negative external background. Before our opening, American futures are losing about half a percent, oil is dropping twice as much. The strong corrective rebound continues for the euro-dollar pair, which went below 1.22, just barely reaching the strong resistance of 1.24 last week. The strong dollar dragged down the quotes of commodities, as well as most precious metals.
Technically heavily overbought Norilsk Nickel, which soared 12% last week, may suffer the greatest losses today. The shares of GMK and Sberbank are threatened not only by a negative external background, but also by the likelihood of a continuation of the outflow of Western funds from Russian stocks. Last week, this figure was the worst in the last 9 weeks.
Oil won back the growth drivers: the OPEC + decision not to increase production in February-March, a voluntary reduction in production by Saudi Arabia by 1 million barrels per day and an increase in oil export prices by Saudi Arabia and the UAE since February. At the same time, special success in the fight against the coronavirus pandemic in Europe is not visible, in many countries there are strict quarantine restrictions, leading to a reduction in fuel consumption.
Taking into account the growth of the dollar, oil may firmly gain a foothold below $ 55 per barrel, and today its decline will drag down the oil and gas sector papers.
However, there is still no strong desire to sell off Russian shares. This means that investors will be looking for new ideas that may well end up in the electricity sector lagging behind the growth of the mainstream market.
Last week, the ruble reacted very weakly to the excellent external background, paired with the dollar, without even trying to test the strength of the strong support 73. Today, the fall in oil and the rise of the dollar against the basket of world currencies, the ruble will continue to lose ground. However, it should be borne in mind that in the coming days, the foreign exchange earnings of exporters accumulated over long holidays may enter the foreign exchange market, which will support the ruble exchange rate for some time.
The nearest resistance for the dollar-ruble pair is at 76, which, if corrective sentiments continue to rise, will at least be tested for strength.
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