The stock market may start a downward correction


The decline in the Russian stock market continued yesterday: the Moscow Exchange Index closed with a loss of 0.6%. But the reason for yesterday’s non-aggressive sales was no longer politics, but a decline in the US stock market, which began a rollback from the upper border of the ascending channel at about 4175 points according to the S&P 500 Index.

Good statistics on the US economy and strong corporate reporting for the first quarter have already been won back, there are no reasons for the channel breakdown. So the correction overseas is quite logical. Support in the form of the lower border of the channel is now being held in the region of 4000 points, but it is not a fact that the S&P 500 will go down to this level.

The picture is approximately the same for the Moscow Exchange Index: it is also in an upward channel, only the policy prevented it from reaching its upper limit. Support for the ruble indicator is the area slightly above 3500 points.

However, there is no particular desire to sell Russian shares, which is clearly evidenced by the dynamics of the market leader – Sberbank, which closed Tuesday with losses of only 0.1%.

This morning the external background is again moderately negative. American futures and oil are traded in the “red” zone, the dollar has ceased to fall against the basket of world currencies. So the opening awaits us in a slight minus, and, most likely, during the day we will slowly crawl down.

However, so far, industrial and precious metals are trading in positive territory, including gold, which completed the downtrend from the beginning of August last year and is trying to form a new wave of recovery. Therefore, we expect the continued growth of gold miners’ shares, which will be helped by the weak ruble. We are also positively looking at Norilsk Nickel.

The ruble is trying to grow in morning trading, compensating for some of yesterday’s losses. But the technical picture for the ruble is negative – the dollar-ruble pair did not manage to pass the support 76, which was previously the upper border of the sideways trend.

Now we are waiting for the pair to leave closer to the next resistance 78. The driver of this movement can be either new political or sanctions negative, or the end of our tax period, which has not yet allowed the ruble to drop significantly.

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