The Russian stock market showed amazing dynamics yesterday. Despite the all day growing American futures, and then indices, another rise in oil, we were falling. Moreover, they fell strongly and at high turnovers, having lost 1.4% on the Moscow Exchange Index in the main session.
It is possible that Western investors decided to take profits.
The market’s locomotive was again Norilsk Nickel, which continues to suffer from setbacks. Yesterday there was information about the partial suspension of the operation of two mines, which provide more than 30% of the company’s production, due to flooding. Apparently, Norilsk Nickel really needs to dramatically increase investments in the modernization of capacities …
Over the past three trading sessions, MMC has lost more than 10% of its capitalization. The security looks locally oversold, you need to look for a moment and pick it up speculatively, counting on a good rebound.
The oil sector was behaving very weakly, while oil continued to rewrite multi-month highs. With such oil prices, securities, first of all, of Lukoil and Rosneft are very cheap.
This morning oil continues to rise in price, trading confidently above $ 66 per barrel. We expect this to give strength to oil securities.
However, you should not get carried away with oil purchases. A correction for oil is still inevitable; current prices are unjustifiably overstated. It is highly likely that OPEC + will increase oil production quotas from April in order to drive down prices and not trigger a sharp revival of American shale producers.
American futures added about a quarter of a percent in the morning. So we should open today with growth, and the Moscow Exchange Index should return above the support of 3400 points. If, for some reason now invisible, we suddenly close under this mark, then sales will intensify on technical factors.
We are more pessimistic about the ruble, which was able to strengthen yesterday. The dollar-ruble pair is approaching the most powerful support 73. It is possible that today it will be tested for strength and may even be punctured.
However, consolidation below and continued growth of the ruble exchange rate is an unlikely scenario.
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