Domestic investors responded with great enthusiasm to yesterday’s unexpected decision to withdraw Russian troops from the Ukrainian border and an invitation to Ukrainian President Zelensky to hold talks in Moscow.
Now the West needs to come up with a new pretext for the “Russian threat”. It will take time, and during this time we will have time to grow up. Yesterday we did it in the second half of the day with the renewal of historical maximums on the Moscow Exchange Index, we will continue to grow today, especially since the external background favors this.
This morning, after an almost percent decline the day before, American futures are growing, plus industrial and precious metals are on the rise. Oil yesterday tried to gain a foothold below $ 65 per barrel, but the bears did not succeed and on Friday morning it bounces off this support.
Sberbank looks the most interesting today. We believe that yesterday’s percentage growth is insufficient. If new threats do not appear in the near future, the Sberbank may go to the region of 300 rubles, where some slowdown is possible, and then even above this mark.
We are waiting for an increase in the demand of non-residents for Russian shares, which will affect not only Sberbank, but also their other favorite paper – Norilsk Nickel.
Rosneft raises big questions. Not only is the company more than half undervalued, but it also ignores the oil prices that have risen recently and production growth since May under the OPEC + agreement. At any moment, the paper can begin to play out these drivers, so it will not be superfluous in the portfolio.
A difficult question with the papers of ferrous metallurgists. They are technically overbought, moreover, today the strengthening of the ruble will be negative for them. It is possible that a small profit-taking will take place on them in order to free up money for other purchases. But mid-term investors are better off keeping them in their portfolio.
And, naturally, one of the beneficiaries of easing tensions will be Gazprom. Attempts, if not to normalize, then not to take relations with Ukraine to an extreme, will knock out several small trump cards from the hands of those who are trying to play the Ukrainian card with respect to Nord Stream 2. However, on the whole, these are not the best times for Gazprom: the price and demand for gas are declining.
The ruble strengthened against the dollar by 1.6% yesterday, having gone under the support of 76. Now the pair has an intermediate resistance in the area of 75.3 ahead.
The increase in the key rate of the Bank of Russia is already included in the quotes of the Russian currency. Improving the situation on the foreign exchange market will allow the Central Bank to raise the rate by 0.25 percentage points. Moreover, it cannot be ruled out that the regulator will refuse such a step altogether, leaving the rate unchanged. But this is a less likely option.
In the medium term, we continue to look at the ruble with pessimism. It cannot be ruled out that the entire positive balance will simply be eaten by the Ministry of Finance by purchasing foreign currency from the NWF.
As for the near future, there is a glimmer of hope that large Western speculators will begin to play on raising the Russian currency, providing it with insignificant and very short-lived support.
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