Yesterday on the Russian stock market began with a decline, but after lunch the purchases intensified, and the Moscow Exchange managed to close the main session with a half-percent growth. It cannot be said that the external background was positive. Although the S&P 500 index updated its historical highs, it did not demonstrate a confident upward movement. At the same time, oil dropped by the evening.
Thus, the Russian stock market clearly demonstrates a desire to grow. Now these intentions would be supported by a positive external background.
VTB shares soared by 7.1%, trying to catch up with the market that had gone far ahead. But VTB is perhaps the weakest blue chip, and we do not recommend including it in medium-term portfolios.
The rally in the ferrous metallurgy sector continues, and so far there are no reasons for its suspension. So you should at least hold securities, and as a maximum – buy in addition on drawdowns.
Norilsk Nickel won back a 2.3% increase in world prices for its main products. All the negative things that have happened to the company have already been incorporated into prices, and now GMK shares will be more closely correlated with the external background. Today it is neutral for the company: nickel is growing, platinum is decreasing, and palladium is trading near zero.
However, it is possible that if the MMC does not suffer new troubles, its securities will look better than the market in the near future.
The results of the first day of the second quarter will largely depend on the OPEC + decision on production quotas in May. The basic option is to keep the indicator at the current level, but yesterday the monitoring committee made no recommendation. This means that disagreements persist and the discussion will continue today.
In recent days, oil stocks traded worse than the market. But at the same time, they removed the technical overbought and have the strength to jump up if OPEC + helps them in this.
In the meantime, the external background is becoming neutral, and we will open on the main securities around yesterday’s close.
The dollar-ruble pair yesterday in the middle of the day went to the area of 75.2, but towards evening the ruble began to weaken. For now, the local strengthening of the ruble should be viewed as a reduction in longs on the pair by speculators and profit taking after the recent wave of devaluation of the Russian currency.
Today, if extraordinary events do not occur, we are waiting for trading on the foreign exchange market in the range of 75.3-76 rubles per dollar.
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