The stock market is in no hurry to grow following the ruble exchange rate

  • Moscow Exchange Index: 3594 (-0.1%)
  • RTS Index: 1508 (+ 0.4%)

Since the opening of Friday trading, the main Russian indices have been demonstrating multidirectional dynamics. The ruble is strengthening against the dollar for the third day in a row.

A barrel of Brent at the opening of trading is growing by 0.6% and is traded near $ 65.8. After falling by 5% from monthly highs, the current movement falls within the framework of a corrective rebound. At the same time, negative drivers prevail at the moment – the number of cases in India yesterday exceeded a record 314 thousand infections per day. Tightening social distancing measures to contain infection could negatively impact fuel demand in the country, which is the world’s third-largest importer.

The dynamics of the ruble (-0.4%) this morning is affected by the support of two factors at once: in addition to the reduction of geopolitical tensions, the stabilization of oil quotations provides support. An important event for the ruble today will be the meeting of the Bank of Russia and the decision on the key rate. The most likely scenarios are a 25 bp rate hike. or 50 bp The latter option may have a moderate positive impact on the national currency.

After passing the dividend cutoff, TMK shares lose 10%. Now there is no certainty that the dividend gap will be closed quickly. The paper has relatively low liquidity and is not suitable for all investors.

Rosneft (+ 0.2%) looks slightly better than the market after its 2020 dividend recommendation. The company intends to pay 6.94 rubles. per share. The decision was fully in line with expectations – no pronounced reaction is expected.

Shares of Raspadskaya (-1.2%) look worse than the market after strong growth the day before. Today the company plans to release operating results for 1Q2021.

LSR operating results are also expected to be published during the day. In the US, reports will be presented by American Express, Honeywell International, Schlumberger.

Leaders: BSPB (+1.4%), En + (+ 1.0%), VTB (+ 0.7%), MMK (+ 0.7%), Norilsk Nickel (+ 0.7%)

Outsiders: TMK (-10%), Headhunter (-1.9%), Raspadskaya (-1.2%), Severstal (-0.6%), Mechel-JSC (-0.6%)

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