Last “holiday” week, the Russian stock market was very strong, soaring by 3.9% on the Moscow Exchange Index. The main driver of growth was the continuation of the rally in prices of raw materials assets. At the end of the week, domestic investors were supported by the American market, which won back the growth of negative statistics on unemployment, which gave hope that the Fed would not soon wind up stimulating programs in such conditions.
Today, the external background calls for the continuation of purchases: American futures are growing, industrial and precious metals and oil are traded in the green zone. So we expect the opening of the Russian market to grow slightly. There is a potential for upward movement: strong resistance on the Moscow Exchange Index is located at about 3715 points – there is the upper border of the ascending channel.
Today the latter is traded with dividends by Sberbank. We believe that there are no risks to cross the register cutoff, Sberbank traditionally quickly closes the dividend gap, and the paper is very good.
On Friday, active demand for shares of ferrous metallurgy resumed. But before the FAS announces the claims, it is risky to buy them. Logically, steelmakers raised domestic prices no higher than the growth in world prices, so there should be no complaints about them at all. However, our logic does not always work…. Therefore, we recommend either to wait for the FAS decision, or to reserve money for averaging over steelmakers’ shares in the event of a strong drawdown.
Increasing positions in gold miners is less risky. Gold went above $ 1,800 per troy ounce. It is possible that as fears of global inflation escalate, large funds will again focus on buying better protection against depreciation of money and drive gold to the region of historic highs.
The oil industry is a little annoying, which reacts weakly both to the growth of oil and to the general positive sentiment. You should be prepared for the fact that the rally in the securities of the sector can begin at any moment.
The dollar-ruble pair is approaching the important level of 73 from top to bottom. We have repeatedly managed to “pierce” it, but failed to gain a foothold below. This is unlikely to happen now. The rise in prices of raw materials leads to a rise in the cost of semi-finished products and components, which increases the domestic demand for foreign exchange. Therefore, you need to look for a moment to buy dollars and euros against the ruble.
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