Yesterday the Russian stock market rose a little less than half a percent. But the main rise was observed in the first minutes of trading, after which the markets went sideways at low volumes.
This morning the external background is not very good. After our close, stock America went down, where there was a small profit taking. However, this morning, American futures are in positive territory again, which means that we will open neutral.
It is possible that further we will try to grow up following the western indicators. We see hope for this, first of all, in the continued weakening of the dollar. This morning, the euro-dollar pair is growing by a third of a percent and approached the level of 1.23. It is not a resistance, the target of the movement is just below 1.24. The weakness of the dollar will push all stocks up.
We do not see any particular risks of transferring longs through the new year. Moreover, it is highly likely that we can expect an inflow of new investor funds to the Russian stock market in the first days of 2021. Therefore, there are more chances that we will grow up before Orthodox Christmas.
In such a situation, it is better to leave the blue chips in the portfolio, which will be the first wave of purchases. Among other things, one can speculatively take the “oil industry”, which in recent days looks worse than the market, despite the stabilization of oil slightly above $ 51 per barrel. Among the “highly liquid”, the most interesting now looks like “Norilsk Nickel” as one of the most favorite securities of non-residents and in anticipation of an increase in prices for MMC products due to the weakening dollar.
We are positively looking at gold mining companies. At any time, you can expect gold to break through the $ 1,900 per troy ounce mark, which will accelerate its growth. The driver is still the same: protection against imminent inflation.
The decline in shares of steelmakers continues. But this is a temporary phenomenon – securities are removing a strong technical overbought, finding a reason for this in the form of the impending introduction of export duties on steel. The external environment for the sector is very good, and they will soon resume growth.
But the prospects for the ruble are not so optimistic. Mark 73 is still a reinforced concrete support for the dollar-ruble pair. And it is difficult to say whether attempts to break it will resume. So for the weekend, it is better to leave without positions on this currency pair, and make decisions on their opening in the new year.
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