On Friday, the Russian stock market was rather dull, unchanged on the Moscow Exchange Index, despite the continued strong rebound on American grounds. This is not a very good signal for domestic investors, saying that buyers’ enthusiasm has run out.
Today, the external background can be called neutral: American futures are trading in a weak minus, oil is declining by a third of a percent, but industrial and precious metals are trading in good plus. In particular, gold adds more than 0.5%, which may well start a new rally amid heightened fears of rising global inflation. Accordingly, today the shares of gold mining companies will look better than the market, for which it is worth increasing long positions.
You can also bribe Norilsk Nickel.
We advise you to be careful with ferrous metallurgy. At the end of last week it was reported that the Chinese authorities will study the issue of market manipulation by local steelmakers and will take measures to prevent the rise in prices for raw materials. World steel prices appear to be locally overheated, this news does not exclude their slight and short-term decline.
In general, the Moscow Exchange Index is in the middle of a narrowing upward channel. There is no overbought now, so we have a good chance to grow up this morning. But Friday’s trading does not instill much confidence in the fact that we will be able to reach the upper border of the channel, which now runs at 3730 points.
Oil is now recovering from the bad Friday statistics on the number of active drilling rigs in the US: the figure rose by 8 units to 352. Previously, it grew at a much slower pace. As a rule, this factor ceases to have an effect on oil closer to noon, so an increase in oil in the coming hours is not excluded.
Accordingly, Russian stocks may receive one more support, but we would not recommend getting carried away with buying oil.
The ruble in the morning session is traded without any significant changes. We expect that this week fluctuations in the dollar-ruble pair will be insignificant, and the pair will not move far from the level of 74. The information on the exact timing of the Putin-Biden meeting may give the ruble optimism, but the ruble’s growth in this case will not be very large and short-term. Support for the pair at 73 looks insurmountable so far.
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