The stock market can renew the maximum today, but then everything is difficult


The Russian stock market was again the best yesterday, having renewed its all-time highs and added 0.75% at the end of the main session. Moreover, the growth was observed at a record turnover, and it was caused by the rebalancing of portfolios by large funds in accordance with the MSCI Index.

Today the external background calls for the continuation of purchases: American futures are growing by 0.2-0.4%, oil is traded above $ 69 per barrel. However, the Moscow Exchange Index is at resistance, which is the upper border of the ascending channel. Most likely, in the morning we will renew historical highs again, but by the evening technical factors and the desire to fix speculative profits after 5 sessions of continuous growth may lead to a slight decline in the market.

As in recent days, oil stocks traded worse than the market yesterday. Today, part of the demand in the context of expensive oil should be transferred to them. It is possible that oil quotes will again try to break through the $ 70 per barrel mark, but it will be very difficult to gain a foothold above $ 72.

Even if the oil sector grows today, it is worth moving speculative positions on it over the weekend. Again, the sector’s securities look very weak in May.

Norilsk Nickel continues to unpleasantly surprise. It seems that the prices for its products are high, and the general trend in the Russian market is upward, but the paper does not want to grow. Today it is trading with dividends for the last day. Most likely, given the lack of pre-dividend growth, the dividend gap will be closed very quickly, so it makes sense to go to the long cut off the register.

The logical correction of gold continues, creating an opportunity to replenish portfolios with shares of gold miners. It is justified to buy them in addition, on inflationary fears we will see gold more than $ 2,000 per ounce.

Sberbank shares are growing. It is possible that today there will be an easy profit taking, but we continue to count on the continuation of closing the dividend gap and setting new records in the coming weeks.

Everything is calm in the foreign exchange market. The dollar-ruble pair has been hanging around the 73.5 mark for a day. Here comes the support from the “symmetric triangle”, and 50 kopecks lower – another support from December last year. We do not expect any fundamental changes in the ruble, but after the 6-day consolidation the ruble should start moving. Most likely, given the factor of Friday and the end of the tax period, the ruble paired with the dollar will go closer to 74. But this does not negate the further scenario of a slight strengthening of the Russian currency with its departure below 73.

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