The Russian stock market looked very weak yesterday, having dropped by 0.2% on the Mosbirzh index, with the rather steady growth of America, which added over a percent, and oil that went to multi-month highs. Thus, the Russian market is giving signals about the desire of investors to partially fix their profits and the need to remove the technical overbought.
However, there is no particular desire to sell, it is likely that for some time the market will go sideways and will remove technical tension in this way. At the same time, we expect demand to flow to the “second echelon”, which has lagged far behind the main market in recent weeks.
Today, before the opening of our trades, the external background is becoming neutral: American futures are traded near yesterday’s close, oil is slightly declining, a contradictory situation on the metals market. So we are waiting for the opening of our market without fundamental changes.
As always at the end of an uptrend, Gazprom shares that did not participate in the last rally may outperform the market. Moreover, they have growth drivers: the expectation of completion of the completion of Nord Stream 2 this year and the rise in gas prices. The target for the securities of the gas monopoly is the area of 230 rubles.
Again, the securities of the Moscow Exchange may go against the market, which is being pulled up by the ongoing inflow of investor funds. In the last days of the year, one can expect another portion of funds from private investors due to the fact that the budget completes settlements with its counterparties.
There may well be a slight correction in the shares of ferrous metallurgy. They are technically overbought, but fundamentally they are quite justified due to the sharp rise in steel prices. On paper drawdowns, you can carefully buy more.
Today we are waiting for the results of the US Federal Reserve meeting. Of particular interest is the regulator’s rhetoric regarding the quantitative easing program. After the increase in European QE, we can expect similar actions from the US Federal Reserve.
The dollar-ruble pair started yesterday with growth, but in the afternoon there were again buyers for the ruble. However, the strong support for the pair – 73 rubles per dollar – was never even tested. Something extraordinary has to happen for it to be broken this year.
A more probable scenario is the growth of the pair to the area of 76. This scenario is supported by both technical factors and the closeness of the end of the tax period, as well as expectations of a traditional increase in money in the economy at the end of the year.
- More forecasts and news on Fortrader’s channel Telegram
Market forecasts, analytics and stock news