The American stock market yesterday renewed its all-time high on the S&P 500 Index again. Our market ignored this driver, having lost a little less than a percent on the Moscow Exchange Index during the main session.
There are two reasons for the weakness of the domestic market: the fall in oil prices and the aggravation of the situation with Ukraine. The United States again accused Russia of provocation on the border with Ukraine. The “provocation” consists in the fact that our troops are moving across their territory. However, the likelihood is ripe that Ukraine will start hostilities in the Donbass, and Russia may be directly or indirectly involved in them. But in any case, the culprit in escalating the situation is already known. And this is a good reason to impose tough sanctions.
The drop in oil shouldn’t come as a surprise. The growth of oil quotations after the OPEC + decision to increase production looks much more unexpected. And this is in the face of lockdowns in Europe, which lead to a decrease in fuel consumption, as well as an increase in production and drilling activity in the United States.
Today, before our opening, the external background looks good: the decline in US futures by a quarter of a percent is offset by an attempt to rebound in oil and the growth of most industrial and precious metals.
Therefore, most likely, in the morning we will try to buy back part of yesterday’s drawdown, but there is no confidence in serious growth today. The upside potential of the American market is limited: in the area of 4100 points in the S&P 500, the upper border of the ascending channel passes, and after 4 sessions of growth near technical resistance, the desire to fix short-term profits will be great.
Yesterday VTB outperformed the market again, gaining 3.6%. In recent years, the paper has lagged behind the market as a whole many times, and it seems that it was good for it to close the gap. But we have no confidence in the outstripping market movement of VTB shares.
Buying shares of ferrous metallurgy and Norilsk Nickel now looks much safer.
We are still closely watching Sberbank, which will report for March tomorrow. In the event of a growth wave forming in it, speculative profit should be fixed when the security approaches 300 rubles.
But on the whole, the situation looks alarmingly uncertain. On the one hand, the Moscow Exchange Index remains above 3500 points, maintaining the possibility of movement to historical highs. On the other hand, politics will continue to put pressure on quotes.
The ruble was rejected yesterday relatively calmly, since the aggravation of the political situation had won back earlier. The Ministry of Finance by increasing the purchase of foreign currency within the framework of the budgetary rule made it clear that so far the monetary authorities do not want to support the ruble. But traders practically did not react to this.
The dollar-ruble pair has consolidated above 76, which will now act as an obstacle to the strengthening of the Russian currency. The emergence of new risks will quickly take the pair to the area of the next devaluation target – 78 rubles. for the dollar.
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