The situation on the Russian market is controversial


The Russian stock market opened yesterday with a confident rebound, but the upward impulse did not continue. By the end of the main session, the Moscow Exchange Index added only 0.2%, although in the morning the increase reached 0.7%.

Meanwhile, America has renewed its all-time highs again, albeit not very confidently. For now, Russian investors should not wait for strong support from overseas: the S&P 500 Index is near the upper border of the ascending channel (just above 4100 points), and there are no reasons to break it.

The external background today can be called rather negative: American futures are traded in the area of ​​yesterday’s close, but at the same time industrial and precious metals went into negative territory. So we will open near the 3500 mark on the Moscow Exchange Index, maybe just below this level.

In general, the situation is controversial. Most likely, the negative risks of the start of full-scale hostilities in Donetsk and Lugansk are not materialized, since Russia has made it clear that it will protect its citizens (about 400,000 Russian passports have been issued in these unrecognized republics). It seems that the market needs to start slowly discarding this factor. But ahead of the weekend, during which anything can happen.

Therefore, if the external background does not change much today, then there will be no significant changes in our shares.

Sberbank has the greatest potential for a rebound, which fell heavily on political risks, but at the same time received a portion of fundamental positive in the form of excellent reporting for March and the first quarter. The paper can be bought with a target of 293-295 rubles, but at the same time be ready to abruptly close positions in the event of negative developments in Ukraine.

Today we are also awaiting information from the board of directors of Norilsk Nickel, which will give recommendations on dividends. We believe that the entire corporate negative in the shares of the MMC has already been incorporated.

Correction at Lukoil and Rosneft dragged on. Yesterday Lukoil tried to rebound, adding 0.5%. But confident purchases of oil stocks are hindered by oil, which, after the recent high volatility, settled in the range of 62-64 dollars per barrel and seems to feel very comfortable here.

The ruble paired with the dollar found a new corridor: 76-78. So far, all timid attempts to break through its upper boundary have ended in failure. So far, there is no reason to test it today.

However, there is no hope for a serious strengthening of the ruble: apart from political factors and persisting sanctions risks, the ruble will always be under pressure from the weakness of the domestic economy.

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