The situation in the stock market is very precarious

Yesterday, we saw a powerful rebound at all world markets. The reason for it was the expectation of the imminent adoption of the “Biden package” of $ 1.9 trillion in aid to the American economy and citizens. The Russian stock market did not stand aside, adding 1.2% on the Moscow Exchange Index, which, however, was about half the growth of the American stock market.

Among the growth leaders were shares of Norilsk Nickel (+3.2). But while we do not recommend making aggressive purchases, the GMK rally resembles only a rebound, including due to the closing of shorts, after large-scale sales last week.

Mosbirzh shares have renewed their historic highs again. We would not associate this with the morning trading that began yesterday, since their contribution to the total revenue of the exchange will be scanty for some time. But this is still an important and positive milestone in the development of both the exchange itself and the entire Russian stock market.

But Sberbank was not very pleased. The bank’s “usual” was never able to get out of the ascending triangle, which would have given it strength to march to the area of ​​the historical maximum. It will be difficult to repeat the attempt to break through the triangle today – the external background does not dispose to this.

While before our opening, American futures are down by half a percent, all industrial and precious metals are in the red, oil is falling by 1.5%. So the opening awaits us in the red.

There are no new negative reasons for sales. The markets simply entered a period of high volatility in the absence of strong drivers of further growth and unwillingness to massively exit stocks in the face of excess liquidity in the global financial system.

We expect worse than the market today for oil stocks, which looked weak yesterday. Today you can try to open shorts using them. But it is worth remembering that the external background has been changing very quickly recently, and Rosneft and Lukoil can start buying out their shares from the market at any time.

Most likely, after rewriting history, the Moscow Exchange will also decline. Speculators can try to catch the fall, while medium-term investors can look for a moment to buy paper, which is one of the strongest on the Russian market.

Yesterday, against an excellent external background, the ruble paired with the dollar failed to gain a foothold below 74. This is a very negative signal indicating the weakness of the ruble’s buyers. This morning, the ruble handed over to the “American” about 25 kopecks. If the external background deteriorates, especially if oil continues to fall, the dollar-ruble pair risks starting to test the resistance of 74.7 in the next few hours. Its breakdown will open the way to the area of ​​76 rubles. for the dollar.

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