On Friday, the Moscow Exchange Index managed to rewrite its all-time high, but closed with a loss of 0.2%. The reasons for the small sales were profit taking from the proximity of the index resistance. But in general, the upward trend of the ruble indicator remains in force.
Today the external background is weakly positive: American futures are growing by 0.1%, industrial and precious metals are positive. But one should not expect any strong movements either in futures for indices or for commodities: in America today is a day off.
Today the first day without dividends will be traded “Severstal” and “Norilsk Nickel”. Securities have not been the growth leaders lately, but rising prices for their products will drag them up. Therefore, they must close dividend gaps quickly. Today they will give a negative contribution to the Moscow Exchange Index in the amount of two to three tenths of a percent.
Gold corrected last Wednesday and Thursday, thus removing the technical overbought. But the precious metal was able to complete the week above $ 1,900 per troy ounce. The nearest resistance is around $ 1950. Most likely, in the summer we will see gold more than $ 2,000. Therefore, we recommend building up positions on shares of gold mining companies.
It makes sense to speculatively take Rosneft: it is trading on strong support. At the same time, the paper in recent weeks did not react either to the general growth of the Russian market, or to the rise in oil prices. The demand should return to it, the paper is good…. But you shouldn’t forget about stops, a breakdown of support will provoke an increase in sales.
Oil has a good chance of trying to gain a foothold above $ 70 per barrel this week. But we still do not see oil above 73 dollars.
The dollar-ruble pair ended last week at 20 kopecks above the important level of 73. It was not possible to consolidate below it since December last year. Most likely, there will be attempts to break through this mark, a short-term departure of the pair even to the area of 72 is not excluded. But we do not believe in the strength of the ruble, we believe that it is necessary to buy the dollar against the ruble in the medium term, and we do not recommend joining the short-term trends of the ruble strengthening.
In the meantime, trading in the ruble is proceeding calmly, at the level of Friday’s close. We do not expect any fundamental changes in the dollar-ruble pair today.
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