The main and completely unexpected event of yesterday was Joe Biden’s call to Vladimir Putin. So far, this telephone conversation should not be interpreted as a radical improvement in Russian-American relations, but the desire of the American side not to intensify the confrontation is obvious. In addition, the likelihood of the outbreak of hostilities by the Ukrainian army is sharply reduced. It does not mean at all that the States will not impose further sanctions, but now it can be argued with high probability that they will be soft and harmless to the economy.
It was these risks that hindered the growth of Russian stocks and weakened the ruble.
Therefore, it is not surprising that after the appearance of the message about the talks between the two leaders, both the Russian stock market and the ruble jumped up.
The most significant gains yesterday were made in the securities of state-owned companies: VTB, Sberbank, Rosneft and Gazprom. They still look more attractive today. Particularly interesting are Sberbank, which “forgot” to play back excellent first quarter financials, and fundamentally highly undervalued Rosneft, which has seriously corrected in recent days.
We also recommend paying attention to the shares of the Moscow Exchange. Today, the exchange will hold an investor day, where positive news can be announced. But the upside potential of Mosbirzh shares is much lower than that of Sberbank.
The external background before our opening can be called weakly positive: American futures are growing slightly, oil is more than a percentage-plus, but industrial and precious metals are traded in different directions.
You should be more careful with the securities of exporters, whose positions were undermined by the strongly grown ruble.
Oil is currently trading 70 cents below the $ 65 / bbl resistance and there is no certainty that this barrier will be broken. But even the current oil prices are very comfortable for the Russian oil industry, which has not yet won back the increase in exports since May as part of the latest OPEC + decision.
Yesterday, the Russian currency began to remove the geopolitical risk premium, the ruble appreciated against the dollar by more than 1.5%. Today the ruble continues to rise.
The dollar-ruble pair went under the level of 76, and if it can gain a foothold below, then the technical picture suggests a return to the 73-76 corridor. But in this case, one should not particularly trust the technique, the ruble has significant internal reasons for its decline.
The most important of them is a strong decrease in the positive balance of the trade balance of the Russian Federation in conjunction with a large volume of foreign exchange purchases within the framework of the budget rule. Therefore, medium-term short positions in the dollar-ruble pair are unreasonably risky.
- More forecasts and news on the Fortrader channel in Telegram
Market forecasts, analytics and stock news