For yesterday, the Russian stock market can definitely put a fat plus. On the Moscow Exchange Index, we added a percentage, while America lost the same amount.
The reason for the sale of American securities was the statement of the US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen about the possibility of increasing the key rate, so as not to overheat the economy. However, she did not name any terms for the increase, and the question of the rate, in general, is not within her competence. But the signal was given, and although nothing terrible happened, many began to carefully take profits on overbought US stocks.
General sales touched us very weakly, the market just sat down a little.
We see two reasons for the growth of ruble shares. The first is the return to portfolios of securities that were sold before the first May holidays “just in case” to reduce risks. The second is the growth of oil and other raw materials.
This morning, oil is growing strongly again, adding a little less than 3% and seriously aiming to touch the mark of $ 70 per barrel. American futures are rebounding after yesterday’s sales. The situation on the metals market is ambiguous.
So everything suggests that today, at least in the first half of the day, growth can continue, and its locomotive will again be the oil and gas sector securities, which will win back the “expensive oil in rubles.” Therefore, it is worth keeping the oil sector for the time being, and you can even try to speculatively buy it within the day.
Sberbank has crossed the line of 300 rubles and may well move even higher, closer to 310 rubles. On Monday, the security will be the last day to trade with dividends, and it usually closes the dividend gap quickly. Therefore, through the cutoff of the register, you can go in longs.
VTB was among the growth leaders yesterday, adding 6%. We still don’t like the paper, despite its fundamental undervaluation and a strong lag behind the market growth in recent years. Now it is heavily overbought from a technical point of view.
Ferrous metallurgists were weaker than the market yesterday. They are still under pressure from the uncertainty of the issue with the size of claims from the FAS. Sector securities have grown strongly since the beginning of the year, so it cannot be ruled out that the correction on them will continue, including as a result of the fact that some investors will take profits to free up money for other purchases.
We do not expect serious movements in the dollar-ruble pair. The range of 74.3-75.2 rubles per dollar seems to be relevant for the coming days.
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