The Russian stock market managed to renew its all-time highs on Friday, which, unlike its American counterparts, has not done since January 12. Logically, now it is worth waiting for the continuation of the rise and even the formation of an uptrend. Only this time, the logic may not work, there is no confidence in our strength, and Friday’s growth took place at low revs.
Today we will open in the area of the previous close, maybe with a slight increase. But the external background is not yet conducive to the continuation of purchases. American futures are trading near zero, and oil, which has risen by half a percent, is offset by falling metal prices.
Most likely, we will not see significant movements in blue chips in the first half of the day, but the second tier may well start catching up with highly liquid stocks. In the coming days, we may again witness an abnormal growth of any low-liquid shares, such as a 30% rise on Friday for TMK shares, which reacted in this way to the decision of the board of directors to pay record dividends.
It is impossible to predict in advance what and when will fire, so we recommend paying more attention to the messages of news agencies.
We are closely following the news on Norilsk Nickel. As we expected, the security managed to reverse from the support of 22,000, and partially removed the local oversold. But only partially. Positive news for the company about the commissioning of the affected mines and the assessment of the damage caused by the accident could pull out the paper by 5-7 percent.
For the rest, we advise you to take a wait and see attitude. So far, we associate all hopes for continued growth of the Moscow Exchange Index this week with the American market. It looks like it has begun to form a new upward wave, but to confirm this, it would be nice for US stock indices to refresh their all-time highs.
If the external background improves, oil may again try to break through the $ 70 per barrel mark, which is becoming a strong resistance. But so far, the most likely scenario looks like the departure of “black gold” for some time in the volatile sideways with the borders of 67-70 dollars per barrel.
In morning trading, the ruble is slowly weakening against the dollar due to the renewed growth of the “American” against the basket of world currencies. The dollar-ruble pair closed Friday trading only 30 kopecks higher than the very strong support 73. If the external background improves, it is not excluded that this mark will “break”, but it will be incredibly difficult to gain a foothold below it.
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