The Russian market will show weakness today


Yesterday we started with a gap up again, but by the end of the day they lost 0.2%. This situation is partly due to the approaching May holidays. Despite the fact that the exchange will work, activity and liquidity will be reduced, and many will simply prefer to rest.

The oil industry is of particular concern, as it responds very weakly to the growth of oil. The exception was Gazpromneft, adding 2.3%, and trying to close the gap with Lukoil and Rosneft.

This morning oil is down 0.8%, but it still costs more than $ 68. It is possible that during the day oil will resume its rise and in the coming days will try to reach the level of $ 70 per barrel.

We recommend keeping the oil sector in portfolios for the time being and we do not exclude that Rosneft will be better than the market, which has unreasonably sagged in recent weeks.

We believe that Tatneft has also been drained in the last few days. Yes, last year’s dividends came out very greedy, but we must look to the future. And the future is very promising with such oil prices and a weak ruble. Now you can take the risk and take Tatneft at least for a rebound.

Sberbank does not dare to gain a foothold above the mark of 300 rubles. Yesterday the bank issued a very strong report for the first quarter, the cut-off of the register for annual dividends is very close. Meanwhile, Sberbank traditionally quickly closes the dividend gap. Therefore, if the external background improves, Sberbank has good prospects to resume its growth, especially since the short-term overbought in recent days has been lifted.

In general, while the expectation of dividend cutoffs will support the entire market.

But so far, American futures are down a third of a percent. So, taking into account the evening growth, we will open on the Moscow Exchange index near yesterday’s close.

Ferrous metallurgists rebounded yesterday. But it is not worth building up medium-term positions until the issue with the state’s claims to them is clarified.

After 6 sessions of continuous growth, the ruble began a natural decline yesterday. Today this trend promises to continue. It’s time to fix profit on shorts for the dollar-ruble pair, and it would not be superfluous to increase currency positions before the holidays. We expect the dollar-ruble pair to close above 75 in April.

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