The Russian stock market showed miracles of firmness yesterday, adding 0.7% on the Moscow Exchange index on American futures falling all day. In many respects, the optimism was promoted by the information that the US sanctions will affect only officials and research institutes. However, the sanctions topic should not be completely ignored, ahead of the sanctions for “hacker attacks” and “aggressive actions against Ukraine.”
Among the blue chips, Sberbank has become the growth leader, having realized the “ascending triangle” pattern. After the breakdown of the 273 rubles mark, the next technical growth target is the area just below 290 rubles. The paper gets a lot of support from the inflow of funds from non-residents, who, after the well-known events, reduced their purchase of Norilsk Nickel. Today Sberbank shares may continue to rise.
Norilsk Nickel itself resumed its decline, having lost 2% of its capitalization yesterday. As we expected, the growth of the previous two days was only a technical rebound after the collapse earlier, caused largely by the closing of shorts. Until it becomes clear in what time frame the company will be able to restore the operation of the two flooded mines and how this will affect the output of the final product, one should not hope for a stable growth of the paper. However, if the management of the mining and metallurgical complex gives encouraging forecasts, the paper can quickly skyrocket by 5-7 percent.
Today the external background speaks of the continued growth of the Russian stock market as a whole. Before our opening, American futures added 0.4%, oil is slightly growing, but few people have paid attention to it lately.
Most likely, oil will resume a gradual decline. An OPEC + meeting will be held tomorrow, following which it is worth waiting for a decision to increase production by 0.5 million barrels per day. Probably, Saudi Arabia will announce an increase in production and a refusal to voluntarily cut it by 1 million barrels per day. So we are waiting for oil prices to move to the psychological level of $ 60 per barrel.
Therefore, under pressure will be oil shares, which yesterday traded slightly worse than the market. It is dangerous to buy them speculatively, and the time has not yet come for the oil sector to replenish its medium-term portfolios.
One should also beware of the shares of ferrous metallurgists, which have traded much better than the market in recent days, and began to decline yesterday. There are opinions that the rapid rise in world steel prices will end in March, followed by a slight correction. Accordingly, the desire to fix the medium-term profit on steelmakers’ securities will increase. However, expectations of double-digit annual dividends will not give them a big fall.
On positive sentiments, the ruble also strengthened, pairing with the dollar, having gone under the mark of 74. So far, the picture for the ruble has not fundamentally changed: the dollar-ruble pair continues to be in the sideways 73-74.7. We do not see any chances for a breakdown of the lower border, but the level of 74.7 will be passed when significant negative news appears.
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