The Moscow Exchange Index rose 1.3% yesterday, which can be called a good, but not outstanding result: many emerging markets showed greater gains. The external background was again favorable for purchases: investors continue to play out expectations of an imminent receipt of $ 1.9 trillion in financial aid in the American economy, of which $ 1 trillion will go into the pockets of citizens.
According to estimates, a third of the money received by the population will go to the purchase of stock assets. Therefore, it is quite logical to forget about inflationary fears for a while and start buying stocks and bonds.
In part, the stronger dynamics of the Russian market was hindered by its entry into the zone of very strong resistance at 3500-3520 points, which had been repeatedly assaulted since the beginning of January this year, but was never passed.
Today there is another good opportunity not only to renew historical highs, but also to gain a foothold above 3500 points, thereby laying the foundation for the continuation of the upward movement next week.
The external background is weakly positive today: American futures are growing by a quarter of a percent, oil is traded at about $ 70 per barrel. True, many industrial and precious metals are in the red.
Oil industry was again better than the market yesterday. This is quite logical in the conditions of expensive oil and at the same time a weak ruble, which has recently reacted without much enthusiasm to the rise in the cost of hydrocarbons. This is partly due to a sharp increase in the purchase of foreign currency by the state within the framework of the budgetary rule and the deterioration of Russia’s balance of payments.
It is possible that oil will try again to go above $ 70 per barrel and even gain a foothold there for some time. In this case, the shares of oil companies, especially the slightly lagging Gazpromneft, will receive a pretext for a new upward leap.
Yesterday the dollar-ruble pair closed the day at 73.3. It has the strongest support ahead of it 73. It is possible that today it will be “punctured”, but the pair will hardly be able to gain a foothold below it.
Thus, exporters’ shares, which prevail in the structure of the Moscow Exchange Index, will continue to receive support from the weak ruble.
Yesterday, the long-awaited recovery of stocks in ferrous metallurgy began after a strong correction in the previous days. In the near future, the growth of securities of the sector promises to continue.
However, we are still not very confident about the firm intention of the Russian market to continue growing. Therefore, we recommend that all purchases be accompanied by short stops.
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