The Russian stock market began yesterday with an attempt to rebound and win back the positive results of the US Federal Reserve meeting. The Moscow Exchange Index has grown by almost a percentage point. But the optimism was short-lived. American futures went down, oil prices began to fall. Still, according to the results of the main session, the Moscow Exchange Index managed to close near zero.
But sales in America intensified after that, and oil collapsed altogether, losing almost 7% in a day. There is no reason for this. It’s just that the market, after the previous growth, entered a phase of high volatility, thus removing the accumulated overbought.
As for oil, there were also no news reasons for its decline. We have repeatedly warned about the risks of oil correction. True, they did not think that it would be so harsh. Until recently, the oil market was supported by the remaining problems in the United States, the oil and gas sector of which suffered heavy losses as a result of abnormal cold weather. Now this “hinge” has left the market.
Today oil will try to rebound, including due to profit-taking on shorts by speculators. However, a further decline in quotations is very likely. The fair price, in our opinion, is now around $ 55 per barrel.
Naturally, the cheapening of oil is negative for the Russian stock market. And not only from the point of view of the decline in oil prices. Under the current conditions, non-residents who look at Russia through the prism of oil can start fixing profits on ruble securities.
Ahead of our opening, US futures, oil and the dollar are trading near yesterday’s close. Considering the results of the evening trading, the Moscow Exchange Index will open today with a decrease by a percentage, or even more.
We believe that in such a situation it is necessary to reduce positions in the oil sector and look for a moment to increase the share of dividend securities in the portfolios: prefs of Surgutneftegaz, ferrous metallurgy, MTS.
Risky investors with a rebound in oil can try to open shorts on oil securities, their decline has not yet been fully recouped.
The ruble withstood the oil negative quite steadily, falling less than a percent against the dollar. Everything suggests that the dollar will not be cheaper than 73 rubles, perhaps never. Now the target of the dollar-ruble pair is the upper border of the sideways trend in the area of 74.7. We expect it to be tested in the near future, and if the external background deteriorates or political and sanctions risks grow, it will be broken upwards.
- More forecasts and news on the Fortrader channel in Telegram
Market forecasts, analytics and stock news