Yesterday the Russian stock market continued its growth for the 5th day in a row, having renewed its historical maximum again. However, in the second half of the day, profit-taking began, caused by both the decline in US indices and technical factors.
The Mosbirzh index has reached the area of 3710-3720 points, where the upper border of the ascending channel passes. There are no reasons for its breakdown, therefore, taking into account the emerging short-term overbought, the closing of part of the longs looks quite logical.
This morning, American futures are trading at a half-percent minus, oil is falling. So the decline started yesterday will continue this morning.
In addition, today the heavyweight Sberbank is already trading without dividends, and only its gap will lead to a drawdown of the Moscow Exchange Index by at least 0.5%. However, we believe that the security will quickly, perhaps even within a month, close the dividend gap. Therefore, it can be carefully selected.
All is well in the commodity market: industrial and precious metals are turning green. It is possible to take Norilsk Nickel on the sly, and on strong drawdowns – shares of ferrous metallurgists, not forgetting that the latter may fall sharply if the FAS claims against them turn out to be absurdly large.
We still recommend holding and even building up positions on gold miners’ shares. Fears of rising global inflation are only growing, and gold is considered a better defense against it. It is not excluded that quotations of the “yellow metal” in the coming months will go above $ 2,000 per troy ounce.
Yesterday the oil industry rebounded, which had very little participation in the rally in early May. Perhaps investors remembered its undervaluation. So far, oil is declining by 0.8%, trading, however, at a very comfortable level just below $ 68 per barrel. Rosneft and Gazpromneft papers should be kept in portfolios for now, but it is dangerous to make new medium-term purchases on them.
It is worth looking carefully, but speculatively, at the “second echelon”. He also did not participate in the growth of recent days and now the demand may spill over into less liquid securities. But what and how much will take off there is impossible to predict.
The dollar-ruble pair turned up yesterday, and did not dare to storm the strongest support 73. Today we should expect a further moderate weakening of the Russian currency. In addition to the deterioration of investment sentiment in the world, importers will play against the ruble. Judging by the nature of the trades, many of them took leave during the May holidays and did not generate demand for the currency, which became one of the main factors behind the growth of the ruble exchange rate.
However, there are no reasons for powerful devaluation processes. If there are no new sanctions or political risks, the dollar-ruble pair is unlikely to go above 76 in the coming days.
- More forecasts and news on the Fortrader channel in Telegram
Market forecasts, analytics and stock news