According to Raiffeisenbank, this quarter may be the most difficult for the ruble. On the one hand, the net inflow of foreign exchange into the country will significantly weaken, and on the other hand, the intervention of the Ministry of Finance, while maintaining high oil prices, will exceed pre-crisis levels and will be comparable to the current account balance. The geopolitical premium for the risk of owning the ruble will remain in the second quarter, and the increased capital outflow will continue in the coming months.
How bad is everything for the ruble and is it worth waiting for its further decline? Alexander Kuptsikevich, an analyst at FxPro, answered a question from Fortrader magazine.
– Since last week, there has been a huge and growing gap between the news agenda and the actual behavior of the markets. If you read the political news feed, the comments of officials and statistics, then an enchanting fall could be expected from the ruble.
This is not happening. Probably, the ruble is exploiting the potential accumulated before, when it clearly ignored the rise of oil. Oil, as it were, allows you to buy off geopolitics.
But this is not the only point. The withdrawal of foreigners from OFZs is compensated by domestic demand. The big question is whether this is a private interest or from state banks. If the latter, then we see a new model of market interventions, not previously known.
One way or another, I am still optimistic about the prospects of the ruble, seeing its ability to absorb geopolitical risks and capital outflow of non-residents. On the one hand, the season of high demand for the ruble is coming to an end, but with it the most acute phase of aggravating geopolitical instability may soon end.
Behind the strength of the Russian currency these days, I see the potential for selling the dollar for rubles at the upper border of the trading range with the potential for a pullback to 73 in the coming week and even to 70 at the end of April.