Due to the growth of geopolitical risks, the ruble against the dollar dropped to more than a month’s minimum. Some analysts believe that due to the risk of sanctions, the ruble will lag behind the high-yielding emerging market peers in 2021, and will trade at around 75 per dollar for most of the year. Other experts believe that the risk of real sanctions remains moderate, and the weakening of the ruble is a good opportunity to sell the currency, as the inflow from foreign trade operations will continue to support the ruble in the coming months.
Will the ruble continue to decline or are there factors that will allow it to rise? Roman Vladimirovich Zhatkin, head of the client department at Vostochnye Vorota, answered the question of Fortrader magazine.
– The geopolitical risks of the ruble have arisen a long time ago, the last time they intensified since 2014. From that moment on, nothing has changed for our ruble, and will not change – the ruble will weaken. Moreover, in addition to the difference in inflation of currencies, the devaluation of the ruble is one of the ways to replenish the budget.
The ruble, however, at the same time, is unlikely to lag behind other highly profitable currencies, peers, the situation in others is not better, but only worse. It is worth taking a look at Turkey or Latin America.
75 rubles is quite a comfortable exchange rate of the national currency against the dollar for our country, and it is not overstated at all. The risk of further sanctions will only increase over time, which in turn will not allow the ruble to strengthen significantly, even with the growing oil price.
The ruble-to-dollar exchange rate range of 72-79 is relevant until a new package of sanctions, which will certainly be adopted.