The risks of a small correction in the Russian stock market are high


The Russian stock market yesterday again renewed its historical record and even managed to climb above 3900 points. However, the weakness of stock America and a serious pullback in oil forced traders to cut their positions, as a result of which all the positive was lost by the close of trading.

Today the external background is weakly positive: American futures are traded unchanged, prices for metals are growing, after yesterday’s fall oil is trying to rebound. Still, the risks of a slight correction in the Russian stock market are great. There are no special reasons for growth, the Moscow Exchange index rose above the upper border of the ascending channel, and it would be nice for it to go back.

Today it is worth speculatively trying to take Norilsk Nickel, which fell by almost 1.9% yesterday. But today the prices for its products are growing, which should provoke a rebound.

At the same time, it is dangerous to make mid-term purchases of MMC. In recent days, Sberbank, another favorite paper of non-residents, has also been trading worse than the market. Perhaps we see the fixation of profits by Western investors on Russian shares.

We continue to have a positive view of Gazprom, which will continue to be pulled up by high gas prices and a low level of filling of European storage facilities. The mark of 300 rubles will not be a serious obstacle to continued growth. There is no particular risk when going through the cut-off register for dividends – in such conditions, the dividend gap can be closed within a few weeks.

Papers of ferrous metallurgists look heavily oversold. It is worth looking for a moment and taking them for a speculative rebound.

We are waiting for the resumption of oil growth. So far, nothing terrible is happening on the oil market. It is possible, however, that OPEC + will have to meet the UAE halfway, and increase their production quotas, as well as the total volume. But the world economy is steadily moving forward, and if Iran does not enter the market with new volumes, the market will digest additional small volumes of oil.

We are still waiting for the oil to reach the $ 80 per barrel mark.

The ruble, which collapsed by 1.3% yesterday, upset me completely. This can be explained by the strengthening of the dollar on the world market or the decline in oil prices, but in the opposite situation, the ruble did not grow very willingly.

Still, the main negative for the Russian currency remains the budgetary rule, which works on the basis of oil prices, but does not take into account the growth in demand for currency at all due to the fact that all imports have risen in price as a result of the rise in prices of raw materials.

So far, the area of ​​74.6 is not very strong resistance for the dollar-ruble pair. The fall of the ruble may accelerate after the Duma elections, so the purchase of prefs of Surgutneftegaz for the end of the year looks justified.

By the way, the fallen ruble should support exporters today.

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