The rise in oil prices is pure speculation

OPEC released a monthly report the night before, which turned out to be absolutely nothing remarkable – somewhere the demand parameters are slightly improved, somewhere they are worsened, but it is absolutely possible to say that this publication was not worth the excitement that was going on around it.

Within OPEC, global economic growth is revised upward in 2020, on the back of slightly higher-than-expected parameters in the third quarter of this year. Now the total GDP is falling by 4.2% against the first estimate of a fall of 4.3% earlier. At the same time, the forecast for 2021 remains unchanged at 4.4%.

Global oil demand is expected to decline in 2020 to 9.77 million barrels in fact, slightly below the previous month’s estimate. Weaker data is associated with a decrease in fuel demand in the US and OECD countries and Europe due to lockdowns.

At the same time, in China, the demand for oil is more stable due to economic recovery in various sectors. India is also showing slightly more demand for oil than previously expected.

According to OPEC estimates, in 2020, total global oil demand will reach 89.99 million barrels per day. In 2021, expectations have slightly worsened, this is due to uncertainty due to covid and the consequences for the employment market. According to forecasts, the total demand for oil in 2021 will not exceed 95.89 million per day (-0.35 million barrels per day from the previous forecast).

Further in the release, the alignment of production forces in non-OPEC countries is touched upon, and there is also nothing here that could attract attention. During 2020, where oil supplies are reduced mainly in Russia, Canada and the United States, and in Norway, China, Brazil they are expanding. In the near future, the USA, Canada, Norway, Brazil will become the main drivers of oil supply growth in the world.

In other words, everything here is exactly the same as it was before, with the exception of purely cosmetic changes in accordance with the updated data. Without an increase in demand in the real sector (industry in China, Asia as a whole), there will be no noticeable increase in supply, which means that the rise in prices is exclusively speculative.

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