The Russian stock market slipped 1.3% during the main trading session yesterday. But at the same time, the turnover of trades has significantly decreased, which indicates the reluctance of the bulk of investors to sell.
The main negative was the falling oil again. It seems that there were no reasons for this – the container ship tightly blocked the Suez Canal, preventing the passage of Middle Eastern oil to Europe. But it looks like active speculators have returned to the oil market and are trying to rock the situation. However, so far they do not dare to storm the $ 60 per barrel mark.
Surprisingly, Rosneft outperformed the market. We have already noted on several occasions that the paper is fundamentally highly undervalued. It looks like it is being bought either by a large strategic investor or stock buyback is underway.
Steel stocks are holding up well due to the continued upward trend in the global steel market and as a result of support from the weak ruble. Securities should be kept in portfolios and speculatively build up positions on them.
After the close of our main session, the American stock market rallied. Today, futures for US indices are traded with an increase of about 0.4%, in the black and oil. Thus, we will open up with growth. But the fundamental picture of the Moscow Exchange Index will not change: it remains flat with the boundaries of 3400-3500 points.
By the middle of the day yesterday, the ruble rate increased by a percentage. But this was due to the completion of the main tax payments. By the evening, the ruble gave the dollar almost everything it had won.
Today, in morning trading, the ruble again went on the offensive, pairing with the dollar, having gone under the level of 76. But for now, this should be considered as the closure of long positions in the pair by speculators. The risks of a new devaluation of the Russian currency with a departure to the area of the next resistance 78 have not disappeared.
In part, the ruble is receiving support from OFZ, which also saw a rebound in prices. But this is not a breakdown of the downtrend. During this year, we have repeatedly seen how attempts to buy off the cheaper obligations of the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation were replaced by only stronger sales.
The main threat to all assets now comes from the dollar, which continues to strengthen. Most likely, this trend will continue to be observed. The “third wave” of the coronavirus has dealt another blow to the eurozone economy, bypassing the United States. As a result, investments in dollar-denominated assets look preferable.
Therefore, we advise not to make new medium-term purchases, but to accompany speculative longs with short stops and fix even a small profit on them.
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