The Russian stock market opened yesterday with a strong fall. The lower border of the ascending channel at the level of 3480 points bounced the Moscow Exchange Index, and it did not try to test the support again. The main trading ended with the growth of the ruble indicator by a symbolic 0.2%, despite the uncertainty of the external background. At the evening auction, purchases continued.
The picture is improving today. So far, there are no signs of further confrontation in relations with Ukraine and the West. Traders took on faith the words of the Secretary of the Security Council Nikolai Patrushev that Russia does not plan to intervene in the conflict in Ukraine. This supported the purchases, although other words were hard to expect.
Today, another good news came from the Western media: details of the impending US sanctions for Russia’s “interference” in their elections and hacker attacks have been disclosed. The US plans to expel Russian diplomats and impose restrictions on those “close” to Putin. If such measures are taken, it will be evidence of the US’s unwillingness to worsen relations with the Russian Federation.
Finally, in the morning, American futures are growing by half a percent. In the “minutes” published by the FRS, investors did not find signals of an intention to start a faster than previously expected tightening of monetary policy.
So everything speaks in favor of the fact that the rebound that began yesterday in the stock market today will not only continue, but also intensify.
We recommend paying attention to Sberbank. The bank released very strong financials yesterday: net profit in March rose 66% year-on-year, while profit for the first quarter rose 29%. Sber has every reason to move towards historical highs and the psychologically important mark of 300 rubles. It’s just worth remembering that this paper is the first and most negatively reacting to political and sanctions risks, as well as the devaluation of the ruble.
We continue to have a positive view on the stocks of ferrous metallurgy companies.
Today, almost all commodities are growing, with the exception of oil. Despite the strengthening of the ruble, we expect the continuation of the rebound of Norilsk Nickel and a slight increase in the shares of gold miners.
The main buying risks again lie in America: the S&P 500 is very close to the resistance in the form of the upper border of the ascending channel, which now passes just above the 4100 mark. There are no reasons for breaking it. Therefore, at least one should not hope for an increase in American growth, but as a maximum – wait for a rollback from resistance.
The dollar-ruble pair twice tested the 78 resistance yesterday. But the attempts were not aggressive, and the pair quickly rolled back from the obstacle. In addition to politics, the ruble was under pressure from the intensification of OFZ sales, the prices of which went to the region at the end of March last year.
Today in morning trading the ruble is strengthening slightly, and is likely to continue to do so in the future. But there is no reason to count on the dollar-ruble pair leaving under the support of 76 so far.
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